Key Takeaways:
The independent global research and advisory firm Forrester has forecast that US retail sales will steadily expand over the next five years.
The company’s US Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 to 2030 report examines total retail sales across 30 product categories, predicting how retail sales, e-commerce sales, and e-commerce share will evolve.
By 2030, total US retail sales are projected to reach $6.2 trillion, which is an increase of $1 trillion from 2025.
The report concludes that strong consumer demand and preemptive buying characterized early 2025, despite tariff-related uncertainties. Retail sales are expected to grow steadily, supported by wages that outpace inflation, along with stable inflation and interest rates.
However, this growth is largely driven by higher-income households rather than lower-income consumers, who tend to focus on buying essential goods. Consumers benefiting from stock market gains and rising home equity are more likely to spend confidently.
In e-commerce, sales are projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030. As more Gen Z consumers enter the workforce and logistical innovations improve, e-commerce is expected to account for 29% of total retail sales. Strategies such as curated marketplaces, which enhance product discovery and selection, are also expected to drive growth in retail media.
Despite these gains, 71% of retail sales will still come from physical stores. Consumers continue to value the immediate gratification and tangible experience of seeing and interacting with products before purchasing. Social interaction and in-person assistance also contribute to the continued strength of in-store retail, which is projected to reach $4.4 trillion by 2030.
Given the dominance of in-store sales, Forrester notes that retailers should prioritize improving the in-store experience through technology. This includes enhancing self-service solutions, improving inventory visibility, expanding product selection, and ensuring store associates can deliver better customer service.
