Key Takeaways:
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce underscores the scale of the tariff shock facing American small businesses, and the implications extend well beyond traditional manufacturing sectors. In 2023, more than 235,000 small business importers brought goods valued at more than $868 billion into the US. Applying newly announced country-level tariffs, the Chamber estimates these businesses could face an annual tariff burden of $202 billion if import volumes remain unchanged.
While the figures span industries, the beauty sector is particularly exposed. Packaging components, especially aluminum tubes, caps, aerosol cans, and closures, are frequently imported as finished or semi-finished goods, even when final product assembly happens domestically.
With tariffs on imports from China reaching 55%, Brazil at 50%, Switzerland at 39%, and India at 25%, the cost of sourcing packaging materials is rising sharply, especially for indie and mid-sized beauty brands that lack the scale to absorb sudden cost increases.
The pressure is already moving through the supply chain. Census Bureau surveys show manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers increasingly reporting higher prices for goods and services, followed by gradual price increases passed downstream. Roughly 56% of US imports consist of raw materials and intermediary goods; manufacturers, including beauty brands, are among the first to feel the impact.
The estimated tariff exposure is particularly acute for imports from China, which alone accounts for more than $157 billion in small business imports and an estimated $86 billion in annual tariff taxes under updated rates. Imports from the EU, India, Vietnam, and Brazil also carry high added costs, compounding challenges for beauty brands sourcing aluminum packaging, pumps, caps, and aerosols from overseas suppliers.
Critically, the Chamber notes that the $202 billion estimate may understate real-world impact. In cases where imported goods contain tariffed inputs, such as European steel or aluminum, small businesses may face layered tariffs that exceed headline rates. For beauty, this means packaging components made with aluminum or steel could be taxed at higher effective rates than expected, accelerating the pricing and sustainability trade-offs brands are now grappling with. At the same time, some imports may be temporarily excluded, creating uneven cost exposure across categories.
Survey data from the Census Bureau further suggests that these costs are already moving through the economy in predictable ways. Manufacturers and wholesalers report paying higher prices for goods, initially absorbing increases through reduced margins before gradually passing costs downstream. With roughly 556% of US imports tied to raw materials and intermediate goods, beauty manufacturers are among the first to feel the impact.
In the context of the newly doubled aluminum tariffs, this data reinforces a broader reality that tariffs are not an abstract policy issue for beauty, but a material force reshaping packaging decisions, supply chain timelines, and price strategy. Small beauty brands are weighing whether to absorb rising costs, switch materials, or pass increases on to consumers.
Looking ahead, industry forecasts point to mounting pressure through late 2025 and into 2026, with packaging costs expected to rise between 5% and 10%, and potentially higher in aluminum-heavy categories. As tariffs reshape the economics of beauty packaging, flexibility, supplier relationships, and long-term planning are becoming critical survival tools, especially for smaller brands navigating a supply chain where every material decision now carries financial, operational, and environmental consequences.