According to eMarketer research, China is on its way to becoming the first country where e-commerce sales will surpass brick-and-mortar retail in 2021. “That means that for the first time anywhere, a majority of retail sales for an entire country will transact online,” the firm said in the report.

• 52.1% of China’s overall retail sales are expected to come from e-commerce transactions in 2021, increasing from 44.8% last year.
• The country with the next-highest rate of e-commerce as a share of total retail sales is South Korea, which is predicted to transact 28.9% of its sales online this year.
• By comparison, the share of e-commerce sales in the US is expected to be just 15.0%, and the average among Western European countries will be 12.8%.
• Last year, brick-and-mortar sales declined by 18.6% in China, with brick-and-mortar sales projected to decline by another 9.8% this year.
• E-commerce in China by comparison grew by 27.5% in 2020 and will grow by another 21.0% in 2021.
• Furthermore, 83.1% of e-commerce in China is projected to be m-commerce this year.
• Ten years ago, e-commerce’s share of total retail in the US and China were nearly identical (4.9% and 5.0%, respectively).
• US remained just ahead of China in overall retail sales in 2020 ($5.506 trillion versus $5.130 trillion), but China will outpace the US by nearly $2 trillion in e-commerce this year.
• In 2022 it’s projected that e-commerce will grow in China by 11.0%, and that its share of total retail will reach 55.6%. E-commerce sales will breach the $3 trillion threshold, forecast to be $3.085 trillion for 2022.
• Chinese customs reported cross-border e-commerce imports and exports totaled 1.69 trillion yuan in 2020, an increase of 31.1%. Total exports transacted on e-commerce platforms rose more than 40% to 1.12 trillion yuan while imports trade on e-commerce sites rose 16.5% to 570 billion yuan.

The Drivers:

• eMarketer estimated that social commerce grew by 44.1% in China last year and will grow by another 35.5% this year to reach $363.26 billion. By comparison, social commerce in the US will reach $36.09 billion this year.
• According to various media reports, well over $200 billion in e-commerce transacted via mini WeChat programs last year, attributing to the overall social commerce numbers.
• Pinduoduo shot up from a 0.5% share of China’s e-commerce market in 2016 to claim a projected 13.2% this year. By comparison Alibaba will claim 50.8% and JD.com will have 15.9%.
• Livestreaming or Live Commerce is the hot new trend of promoting e-commerce live via digital video.

“China seemingly reached a behavioral tipping point over the past few years, wherein e-commerce enthusiasm accelerated rather than leveled off,” said eMarketer. “While the pandemic did not create this trend, it certainly buttressed it, and China’s most recent e-commerce boom did not decelerate even after the country got a handle on the virus and the economy fully reopened.”