The beauty investment and M&A market kicked off 2025 with quiet optimism. After a muted 2024 marked by recalibrated valuation expectations, investor discipline, and a continued slowdown on the part of the big beauty strategics, the first quarter of the new year showed signs of reawakening. Deal conversations resumed. Bankers began talking about their pipelines for the year. A handful of marquee transactions closed. Growth investors and strategics alike returned to the table—albeit with a more sober, fundamentals-first lens.But just as momentum began to build, March and April brought a sharp change in tone. Renewed trade tensions and the imposition of a complex set of tariffs—particularly those targeting China-origin goods—cast a long shadow over the market. Seemingly overnight, the debate among dealmakers shifted to “will we” or “won’t we” see a recession here in the US. A sense of cautious hesitation has rippled through investor dialogue, particularly for brands with global supply chains or heavy exposure to imported packaging and components. Capital deployment hasn’t frozen, but underwriting assumptions are shifting, and diligence conversations now extend far beyond brand strength and margin profile. The giddy excitement of January and February has given way to a “let’s wait and see how things play out” attitude among dealmakers.According to Ilya Seglin, Managing Director at Cascadia Capital, “For the most part, the beauty M&A and investment market is in a holding pattern. If you're already in the market, you’re continuing to work through the process and diligence, but the path to closing remains uncertain.