Back in January, we asked some of the most prominent players in the beauty investment and M&A business to make predictions about what was to come in 2023. Generally, their predictions were pretty spot-on. They gave us macro predictions like “Beauty M&A will start slow with the potential for a strong year,” and “Beauty investors will remain skittish.” They also made more tactical predictions like “Mass will be the new frontier for prestige beauty in the US,” “Asian buyers will be a real force in M&A,” and “Omnichannel will drive growth and capital needs.” In the first half of 2023, we’ve seen all of these trends play a meaningful role in influencing what has been a pretty lackluster six months for beauty deal activity.The back half of the year, however, is showing signs of being a lot more interesting—primarily because of things no one in their right mind could have predicted back in January. Who would have been contrarian enough to predict that niche fragrance, historically an absolute snooze of a category from a deal-making perspective, would become one of the hottest categories by midyear? What rational person was thinking that the IPO of a technology-first, DTC-only beauty company with brands called Il Makiage and Spoiled Child would see a 35% debut pop from its IPO price and be the beacon of hope the equity markets have been waiting for after a virtual IPO drought in the first half. What’s more, who’d have guessed that, despite persistent inflation and rate hikes, the recession we’ve all been waiting on for the last 12 months would, once again, be postponed, all while unemployment remains at a near-record low of 3.