The beauty category is crowded, competitive, and constantly shifting. Success will require brands to have an agile long-term strategy that informs differentiating decisions. As an industry, we tend to look at the same set of research and data resources through an "at the speed of TikTok" lens. This herd mentality creates a sea of sameness, looking for short-term wins rather than opportunities to develop long-term sustainable differentiation.
Looking beyond beauty for context and inspiration to determine what's next is ingrained in the DNA of BeautyMatter. As a team, we embrace coloring outside the lines, challenging the status quo, and connecting the dots for what's next in beauty by looking into overlooked and underestimated places.
There has not been and will not be much movement in the ranking of the top ten global beauty markets. The chatter of China surpassing the US as the top dog in beauty has quieted because slowing growth will keep the market in a solid second, reinforcing the importance of the US—at least for the foreseeable future.
Ranking according to Euromonitor.
Given all this information, the World Consumer Outlook published by the World Data Lab caught our attention. Their research indicates the world has reached a tipping point in which more than half its population is part of the consumer class. By their estimates, without a major economic shock, a new world will emerge with 5 billion consumers by 2031—that's another billion consumers in just eight years. More consumers mean more spending.
The World Data Lab believes, "The continuous growth of the global consumer class is the biggest news that no one is talking about. Surprisingly, neither the global financial crisis, COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, nor high inflation have stopped the growth of the consumer class."
They define the consumer class as those spending at least $12 per day (measured in 2017 purchasing power parity, or PPP prices).
Just the Numbers
The world reached 4 billion consumers in June 2023 for the first time ever. In 2024, the world is expected to add 113 million more to this consumer class.
Asia, led by India and China, will contribute 81% of the new consumers in 2024. India will add 33 million new consumers—overtaking China, which will add 31 million. Twelve additional countries will add over 1 million consumers in 2024: Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, the US, Brazil, Nigeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, and Mexico.
Consumer spending is set to increase by $2.3 trillion ($2017 PPP) in 2024, equal to global military spending or adding another Germany to the global consumer economy. Despite this global expansion, certain countries will see a decline in the consumer class by 2030 due to aging populations and lower fertility rates—notably in Japan, Italy, and Germany.
So, What's Next?
In the future, finding growth will require deviating from the homogeneous beauty playbook. China was a lesson in early mover advantage as the market became the growth engine for the industry. As the Chinese market matures, growth slows, and local competition increases, brands are placing bets on beauty's next hotspot.
While success in the US and China will remain important markets—with North America reaching $114 billion and China $96 billion by 2027, according to McKinsey—the lessons of the last few years have reinforced the need for geographic diversification. For emerging brands, diverse omnichannel strategies and global expansion will be crucial in fueling growth and achieving scale. Geographic diversification will be important, but it will also become more complex as rapidly shifting economic, political, and social forces that impact our world become increasingly interconnected.
