During her presentation “The Beauty Industry in 2026: Current Landscape and Future Outlook” at BeautyMatter 2026 State of Play, Larissa Jensen, Senior Vice President and Global Beauty Advisor at Circana, argued that beauty consumers are navigating a far more complex decision-making process than ever before. While beauty has traditionally been driven by aspiration and self-expression, purchasing decisions are now equally influenced by wellness and affordability, reflecting a broader shift in how consumers define value.
"Not long ago, beauty was driven by a simple question: What do I want to look like?," Jensen said. Today, she argued, that question has evolved. Consumers are asking, "What do I need to feel like?" as beauty becomes more closely linked to self-care and emotional well-being. At the same time, persistent economic pressures mean a third question is shaping purchasing decisions: "What can I afford to prioritize?"
Rather than replacing one another, these three priorities now exist simultaneously. Consumers are balancing appearance, well-being, and tighter budgets every time they shop, creating a more nuanced beauty market where brands must deliver emotional, functional, and financial value. According to Jensen, understanding these competing priorities will be critical as wellness, technology, and new commerce models continue to reshape the future of the beauty industry.
Despite consumer confidence falling to an all-time low, Jensen argued that beauty continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Consumers may be scrutinizing discretionary spending more closely than ever, but rather than abandoning beauty altogether, they are becoming more intentional about where they spend their money. As budgets tighten, perceived efficacy and value have become increasingly important, with shoppers prioritizing products they believe genuinely deliver results.
"People are still spending; they are doing it more intentionally," Jensen said. "People still want to buy into beauty, but they're much more selective, and that's really where value and perceived efficacy really start to matter." Even against that backdrop, beauty remains one of the few discretionary categories delivering consistent growth across both prestige and mass retail. "You can still win, but you really have to earn that spend."
That resilience is reflected across global markets. Circana's data shows beauty continuing to grow despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, although the drivers vary considerably by region. China remains the fastest-growing prestige market, with sales increasing 18% in Q1 2026, while Latin America posted 11% growth and Europe grew 5%, despite softer performance in markets such as France. In North America, prestige beauty increased 5% in Q1 2026 while mass beauty outperformed with 7% growth, highlighting consumers' willingness to shop across price points rather than retreat from the category altogether.
The US, the world’s largest beauty market, also continued its strong performance. Total beauty sales reached $154 billion over the past 12 months, representing 9% growth across mass, prestige, and all other retail channels. Rather than signaling a single global growth story, Jensen argued that beauty’s resilience is being fueled by different categories, channels, and consumer behaviors depending on the market. "There's no single global beauty story today," she said. "But the common thread ... is that beauty remains resilient, with multiple categories driving growth across markets."
Jensen highlighted the growing strength of beauty’s middle market. As consumers become more discerning about where they spend, success is no longer determined solely by prestige positioning or low prices. Instead, brands that combine perceived performance with accessible pricing are performing well at both ends of the market.
This shift is also reshaping where consumers shop. In the US, pure-play e-commerce has become the country's largest beauty retail channel, overtaking every other format and now accounting for more than a quarter of total beauty sales. Jensen noted that this growth has been driven largely by Amazon, while almost every other retail channel also continues to expand, with grocery and department stores the notable exceptions. At the same time, mass beauty outpaced prestige across skincare, makeup, personal care, and fragrance during the first quarter of the year, with hair the only category where prestige delivered stronger growth.
The biggest opportunity, however, lies in the masstige segment. Although masstige brands account for just 10% to 11% of total beauty sales, they are delivering the strongest growth across the market, outperforming prestige brands by six percentage points and mass brands by nine. Haircare represents masstige's largest share at 17% of category sales, while fragrance remains the smallest at around 6%, illustrating where consumers are most willing to trade up for greater perceived performance.
According to Jensen, the segment’s success reflects a broader shift in consumer priorities. Rather than simply searching for the lowest price, consumers are looking for quality and affordability. Haircare and skincare have become particularly important growth areas, suggesting consumers are most willing to invest where performance and daily routines intersect. As value becomes more closely tied to results than price alone, the middle of the market is emerging as one of beauty’s strongest commercial opportunities.
Jensen argued that skincare is being viewed through the lens of wellness rather than beauty alone. Rather than treating skincare as an occasional indulgence, consumers are incorporating it into their daily self-care routines, creating more habitual purchasing behavior and stronger long-term growth opportunities for brands.
"Consumers consistently tell us that skincare is becoming a part of everyday wellness routines," Jensen said, noting that around half of consumers plan to prioritize skincare in the future. That shift is benefiting routine-driven categories including cleansers, moisturizers, and body wash, where repeat usage encourages loyalty and more frequent purchasing. "It's less about trends here and more about consistency," she explained, highlighting daily-use products as one of the category's strongest growth opportunities.
As skincare becomes more closely linked with wellness, consumers are also expecting clinical, benefit-led ingredients to appear across the wider beauty routine. Jensen noted that ingredients traditionally associated with facial skincare, including salicylic acid and peptides, are appearing in more deodorants, body washes, and hand lotions as brands elevate everyday personal care with efficacy-focused formulations.
Mass brands are also taking cues from prestige through scent and formulation. Jensen highlighted brands including eos and Saltair as examples of companies combining luxury-inspired fragrances with skincare-inspired ingredients and social-first marketing. As a result, luxury-inspired mass brands grew more than 30% in 2026, demonstrating that success in the mass market is driven by experience, performance, and cultural relevance rather than price alone.
Together, the two categories now represent more than $218 billion in sales, with skincare and personal care driving much of that momentum as consumers connect appearance with broader physical and emotional well-being.
Consumer attitudes reinforce that shift. Nearly three-quarters of women now agree that beauty and wellness are both integral parts of self-care, creating new opportunities for brands to position products around long-term health, prevention, and lifestyle rather than aesthetics alone. According to Jensen, this convergence represents one of the industry’s most significant growth opportunities.
Despite growing economic pressure, Jensen argued that consumers continue to trade up where products deliver emotional value, exclusivity, or superior performance. Rather than abandoning premium beauty, shoppers are becoming more selective about the categories they believe justify higher prices.
Luxury fragrance remains one of the clearest examples. Although it accounts for just 6% of units sold, it generates 14% of prestige fragrance sales, more than double its share of volume. Jensen noted that, even as consumers become more cautious with discretionary spending, they remain willing to invest in products that deliver "exclusivity and a sense of indulgence." Luxury makeup is showing similar resilience, accounting for 9% of prestige makeup sales while growing 5% year over year as consumers continue to treat themselves through smaller, attainable luxuries.
That behavior is particularly visible in lip products, where lip liners and tinted lip treatments continue to grow across both prestige and mass retail. Jensen linked this to the enduring "lipstick index," arguing that lip products continue to provide consumers with an affordable way to indulge without making a significant financial commitment.
Haircare is following a similar trajectory. Styling products remain one of beauty's strongest-performing categories, while prestige hair treatments are driving growth as consumers view products targeting repair, strengthening, and scalp health as investments rather than discretionary purchases. Social commerce is reinforcing that momentum, with haircare, styling, and treatment products generating nearly $240 million in sales on TikTok Shop so far this year. Together, the trends suggest consumers remain willing to trade up where they believe products will deliver meaningful results.
Jensen highlighted that skincare is entering a new phase, with the conversation shifting away from anti-aging towards maintaining skin health over time. Rather than focusing solely on correcting visible signs of aging, consumers are investing in preventive care, barrier health, and long-term skin resilience.
One factor accelerating that shift is the growing adoption of GLP-1 medications. Circana's research shows 23% of households now report GLP-1 usage, creating new skincare needs linked to hydration, barrier repair, firmness, and facial volume following significant weight loss. While GLP-1 users spend more across beauty generally, particularly in fragrance, the skincare implications may prove even more significant as consumers seek products that support skin recovery and overall health.
That changing mindset is also redefining how brands position innovation. Jensen noted that while ingredients such as peptides and exosomes remain central to product development, the industry's language is moving away from "anti-aging" and towards longevity. Suncare is playing a more important role in that transition as lightweight formulations, improved textures, and skincare-infused SPF products encourage consumers to view daily sun protection as the foundation of skin health rather than a seasonal necessity.
K-beauty continues to accelerate those expectations. Although Korean beauty brands account for just 3% of prestige skincare sales and 6% of mass skincare sales, their influence extends well beyond market share. Jensen noted that seven of the 10 best-selling skincare brands on TikTok Shop are K-beauty brands, reflecting their growing role in shaping consumer expectations around ingredients, routines, efficacy, and education. Rather than remaining a niche segment, K-beauty is influencing how skincare innovation is developed and marketed across the global beauty industry.
AI is also emerging as one of the industry's biggest structural shifts, transforming how consumers discover, evaluate, and ultimately purchase beauty products. Jensen argued that AI is rapidly evolving beyond a search tool into a decision-making partner, helping shoppers navigate an increasingly complex marketplace where product choice, ingredient literacy, and personalized recommendations all play a growing role.
Consumers are already using AI for practical shopping tasks, with price comparison remaining the most common use case. However, nearly as many shoppers are turning to AI to identify the right products, understand ingredients, and build personalized routines. Jensen suggested this presents a significant opportunity for brands, as success will depend on communicating product benefits in ways that are both credible to consumers and easily interpreted by AI-powered platforms.
The technology is also beginning to reshape the purchasing journey itself. Circana's research found that 44% of consumers are already comfortable making purchases through AI assistance, signaling a shift away from the traditional discovery-consideration-purchase funnel towards a more streamlined, guided experience. "Today, AI helps consumers make decisions. Tomorrow, it may make purchases on their behalf," Jensen said. As AI becomes integrated into commerce, she argued that brands will need to optimize not only for consumer discovery but for algorithmic recommendation. "Future success will depend not only on being discovered by consumers, but also on being recommended by the algorithms that are increasingly shaping how consumers shop."
Throughout the presentation, Jensen argued that beauty's resilience cannot be explained by a single trend. Instead, it reflects the convergence of multiple forces—from wellness, AI, and social commerce to GLP-1 adoption, K-beauty innovation, and evolving definitions of value—all reshaping how consumers discover, evaluate, and purchase products.
The common thread connecting each of these shifts is the consumer. Today's beauty shopper is balancing aspiration with well-being, efficacy with affordability, and convenience with personalized expectations. For brands, future success will depend less on chasing individual trends and more on understanding how these competing priorities influence purchasing decisions across every stage of the consumer journey.
As Jensen concluded: "The future of beauty is not going to be defined by a single trend, or by a specific technology or channel, but by how well we adapt to a consumer whose needs, priorities, and expectations continue to evolve."
